Barca - Real: Classic last episode

Barca have won Real in three of the four El Clasico matches this season, in the Spanish Super Cup, the King's Cup and La Liga. In it, they won both El Clasico matches in the past month. This time, Xavi's teachers and students continue to be appreciated with a series of five wins in all competitions, conceding only one goal, and Real has dropped points in two of the last five matches.

Opta's super machine predicts Barca's chance of winning up to 43%, drawing 28%. In both these cases, 71% probability, the host will reach the final due to having won 1-0 in the first leg. Real only have a 29% chance of winning, where a goal difference is not enough to help them progress. In that case, the two teams will play 30 minutes of extra time, if necessary, penalty kicks, as the away table rule no longer applies in the tournament.

The possibility of Barca reaching the final can therefore be up to 80%, so coach Carlo Ancelotti thinks Real will not play a "crazy" match. "We will not do anything to score goals, but focus on playing a perfect game," the Real coach said in a pre-match press conference. "We wouldn't go crazy to score one goal and then concede two again. Last time we played at Camp Nou, we were close to winning."

Ancelotti also added that if Real play like in the first leg, they will go through. The match at the Bernabeu took place with a scarcity of opportunities, when Real finished 13 times but did not aim for the goal. Barca only had four shots and scored the only goal thanks to a counter-kick by centre-back Eder Militao.

El Clasico can be considered the most notable confrontation in the world, although the attraction has decreased when Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi respectively leave Spain. This season, Real also did not play well in La Liga when they were 12 points behind Barca. But in the Champions League, Ancelotti's teachers and students eliminated Liverpool to enter the quarter-finals against Chelsea. Barca were eliminated in the Champions League group stage and the first knockout round in the Europa League, but only conceded nine goals in 27 La Liga matches.

Scoring against Barca will be a difficult task for Real, even though they have an all-star attack with the Golden Ball Karim Benzema, and the young Brazilian striker pair Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. This season, Benzema has scored 22 goals, assisted four times in 30 games for Real, but he has fallen somewhat compared to last season. Midfielder Federico Valverde is also no longer as explosive as at the beginning of the season, when he is going through a streak of seven matches without scoring.

The positive point for Real is that the away team has the strongest squad, only the left-back Ferland Mendy is absent. Barca lacks four pillars of Frenkie de Jong, Ousmane Dembele, Pedri and Andreas Christensen, but their squad depth is not bad, when Sergio Busquets, Jules Kounde, Gavi or Ansu Fati are all able to replace the four above.

The competition between Benzema and Robert Lewandowski as usual is still noticeable. The Polish striker has scored 27 goals and assisted six times in 34 games for Barca this season, better stats than the French striker. But since the World Cup, Lewandowski's form has stalled with six goals, while Benzema has scored 13 this time.

Experts also think that the match will be difficult to decide even though Barca is playing at home. Sportsmole and Sportskeeda both predict the score 1-1, while Barcablaugranes thinks the two teams will draw 2-2. The above score is enough to help Barca reach the final against Osasuna or Athletic Bilbao.

Barca: Ter Stegen; Kounde, Araujo, Alonso, Balde; Kessie, Busquets, Gavi; Raphinha, Lewandowski, Fati.

Real: Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Nacho, Alaba; Kroos, Tchouameni, Modric; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius Jr.