Correlation before the 2023-2024 Champions League
The 2023-2024 Champions League group stage kicks off tonight with the first series of matches from Groups E to H.
Man City opens against Red Star Belgrade at Etihad Stadium, with a 91.6% chance of winning, according to Opta statistics. The largest statistics company in the soccer world also estimates that Pep Guardiola and his team have a 36.1% chance of winning the championship, while the team behind Bayern Munich only has a 10.2% chance.
This parameter increased after the division results were announced, because Man City was with Leipzig, Sao Do and Young Boys. This is the third consecutive season Leipzig has met Man City in the Champions League, when the English club has never won at Red Bull Stadium. But the remaining two opponents in the group are not strong enough to make things difficult for the defending champions, so Man City is still expected to come out on top.
All 27 leading British bookmakers also offer the highest odds for Man City winning the championship, meaning the lowest winning amount. Most odds are one to two for Man City's championship. Bayern, Real Madrid and Arsenal are behind with odds of 1 to 5, 8 to 10 and 10 to 1, respectively.
Man City is also expected by four out of five experts on CBS Sports to be crowned. Journalist James Benge assessed them as still "the strongest team in Europe, much better than other competitors". Chuck Booth said that "Every club has weaknesses, but the only team that can exploit Man City's weaknesses is themselves". And reporter Jonathan Johnson commented that "Man City's system this season will reduce its dependence on striker Erling Haaland's scoring ability."
Real falls into a not too difficult group, with Napoli, Braga and Union Berlin. The defending Serie A champion will be an unpleasant challenge for the most successful team in the Champions League. However, all five CBS experts believe that Carlo Ancelotti and his team will top Group C. ESPN believes that "it's just a matter of whether Ancelotti's current team or his old team will top the group".
Behind the three European giants, Arsenal is also highly rated despite just returning to the Champions League after a five-term absence. Mikel Arteta's team is the strongest in Group B against Sevilla, PSV Eindhoven and Lens, on paper. Opta even believes that Arsenal's chance of winning the championship is third highest with 7%, above Real 6.6% and Napoli 6%. Two out of five CBS experts also think Arsenal will be the dark horse at the tournament.
It would be a big surprise if former kings Barca, Man Utd or Inter could win, but they are all expected to easily pass the group stage. Barca is surprisingly the Champions League team that spent the least amount of money in the summer of 2023, with only 3.6 million USD on player transfers. Man Utd is having many problems on and off the field, and Inter will be more respected by opponents after reaching the finals last season.
PSG is the only giant with only a 1% chance of winning the championship, after parting ways with Lionel Messi and Neymar. Luis Enrique's army also fell into the group of death with Milan, Dortmund and Newcastle. Cattry predicts PSG will be eliminated in the group stage, but Booth and Johnson think the French club will go to the final. Their ability is still a question mark, after spending up to 373 million USD to buy players in the summer of 2023, the most among participating teams.
In the top scorer race, Haaland is the brightest with odds of about one to one. Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have the same ratio, placing one in four, then Robert Lewandowski. In addition, the remaining players all have negligible chances. Experts also thought that Haaland would win the award, only Pattry unexpectedly chose Bellingham as top scorer, best player and best young player in the tournament.
