Japan - Croatia: 'Dark horse' continues to write miracles?
* Japan - Croatia: 10pm today, on MetaSports.
Before Qatar 2022, Japan has three times reached the round of 16 out of six times they attended the World Cup, but never went deeper. However, the positive results in this year's group stage are the basis for the fans of the rising sun to dream of a new achievement milestone when the defending team plays the defending runner-up Croatia today.
Falling into Group E - the group that is considered the death of the tournament, Japan surprised the whole world with the spirit of not giving up before Germany and Spain. Mr. Hajime Moriyasu's team were both leading in both these matches, but both won with the same score of 2-1.
Those two victories also point to an important detail - Japan has a tendency to be easy to kick and get better results when played in a defensive counter-attack. Their only defeat against Costa Rica took place when the team under coach Hajime Moriyasu played imposingly and held the ball 56.8%.
Witnessing the opponent's performance in the group stage, Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic called on the players to play discipline and not be subjective when stepping on the Al Janoub field today. The 56-year-old leader highly appreciates the quality of Japanese personnel and said his team will be patient to wait for the opportunity.
"Before the group stage, some fans were hoping that we could face Japan in the next round. However, from what they showed, it is clear that Japan is an extremely difficult challenge to overcome." Dalic said at the pre-match press conference. "We can't make mistakes because Japan is very good at punishing opponents."
Croatia are among the four teams that are still unbeaten, alongside England, the Netherlands and Morocco. The strength of the defending runner-up lies in experience with an average age of 27.4 - the second highest among European representatives. Except for Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic, veterans who were finalists in 2018 such as Luka Modric, Matteo Kovacic, Marcelo Brozovic or Dejan Lovren continue to be the core of Qatar this year. On the attack, trust is being placed on Ivan Perisic's shoulders. The 33-year-old striker has 9 goals in major tournaments and equals the achievement with the legendary Davor Suker. In the three group stage matches, Perisic was also the one who launched the most shots on goal of Croatia with 5 shots.
In addition to Ko Itakura, who is absent for receiving enough yellow cards, both teams are expected to have the strongest lineup. Flexibility in tactics is Japan's strong point. In the group stage, Mr. Moriyasu often places competitive players in the starting line-up and only uses key players such as Takumi Minamino, Kaoru Mitoma or Takehiro Tomiyasu when it is necessary to change the game. However, it is likely that the high-intensity pressing style of the Asian representative will face challenges when the Croatian midfield gathers many midfielders who are able to handle the ball in a good narrow space.
Mr. Moriyasu is likely to continue using the 3-4-3 formation after defeating Spain in the last round. Croatia may remain loyal to the familiar 4-3-3 system.
Today's match at Al Janoub will be Croatia's third time facing Japan in the World Cup. Two previous encounters, the representative of Europe won one, drew one. Croatia have also never lost in the round of 16 of the World Cup - winning Romania 1-0 in 1998 and defeating Denmark 3-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes in 2018. The Balkan team is currently unbeaten. lost in 9 of the last 10 matches at the World Cup.
On the Japanese side, this is the fourth time they have participated in the round for the 16 strongest teams. If they beat Croatia, they will be the third Asian team to reach the quarter-finals after the achievements of North Korea in 1966 and South Korea in 2002.
According to Stats Performance, Croatia has a 47% chance of winning in 90 minutes, while the hope for Japan is 24%. The probability of the two teams drawing and having to go to extra time is 29%.
