Man City - Bayern: The ultimate challenge
While Man City have the most possession in the Champions League this season (64.2%), Bayern are the only team to average more than three goals per game in the competition. The German representative won all the way from the beginning of the season, despite having to meet Barca, Inter and PSG twice each. Bayern have only conceded two goals, and kept seven clean sheets in the Champions League this season. In terms of class and squad quality, Man City and Bayern can be considered the two strongest teams in the quarterfinals.
The two teams prepare for the epic match at Etihad in different ways. Man City flourished with a series of eight wins in all competitions, including five clean sheets. Pep Guardiola's teachers and students are also in good spirits, when the opportunity to win the Premier League opens after Arsenal's 2-2 draw with Liverpool over the weekend.
Bayern lost two of their last four matches, but won against rivals Dortmund and took the top of the opponent's Bundesliga table. Two weeks ago, they fired coach Julian Nagelsmann and appointed Thomas Tuchel - who helped Chelsea beat Pep Guardiola's Man City in the 2021 Champions League final.
The question of whether Guardiola can win the Champions League, actually came from seven years ago, not only the 2021 season. "We always try, but the rivals Man City also play very well," answered Pep Guardiola for the above question, in the interview before the match against Bayern. "It's not that Man City just tries to win."
Against an opponent with a strong attack like Bayern, Guardiola remembers a number of times when Man City was bitterly eliminated due to not being able to defend well. In 2017, his team scored six goals against Monaco in two matches, but were still eliminated. The same thing happened when Man City scored four goals against Tottenham in 2019, and five goals against Real last year. This time, Man City's defense is in high form, conceding only three goals in the last eight wins before the match against Bayern.
In attack, Man City was also somewhat reassured when Erling Haaland scored a brace right after recovering from injury, in the 4-1 win over Southampton over the weekend. Bayern are worried, because they lost Eric Choupo-Moting to a knee injury. Since Robert Lewandowski's departure, Choupo-Moting has been Bayern's only classic striker with the skills to build walls and score goals, as well as connect well with the midfield. In the last two defeats against Leverkusen and Freiburg, the Cameroon striker was either absent, or only played 42 minutes before leaving the field due to injury.
On the Man City side, the only absence comes from Phil Foden. Coach Guardiola probably won't be too worried, because Jack Grealish is playing well, alongside other options like Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez for the winger position.
Opta predicts Guardiola has up to 54.9% chance of winning, when facing his old team at Etihad tonight. This ratio is reasonable, not only because Man City has the home field advantage. According to German newspaper Sport1, many Bayern players have problems with form and psychology, including pillars like Alphonso Davies or Joshua Kimmich. The problem also lies in the ability to take advantage of opportunities. "The decisive pass, the last shot, everything has to be better," said centre-back Matthijs De Ligt, who scored the only goal in last week's 1-0 win over Freiburg.
Not only leading in the ability to score in the Champions League, Bayern also scored 77 goals in the Bundesliga, far ahead of the second team Dortmund (59 goals). But they need 512 shots on target to get 77 goals, or about seven shots on target to score a goal. The scoring opportunities will not come as much at Etihad, because Man City only let opponents have an average of 0.59 goals per game, at least in the Champions League this season.
"We bravely went to Manchester," said coach Tuchel, still remaining confident against a big opponent. "In football, anything is possible if we have faith. We have to push ourselves to the limit mentally and physically, if we want to achieve good results."
