Man City - Real: Continue writing the dream of a treble?

In the first half of the first leg at the Bernabeu a week ago, Man City held the ball 68%, shot six times with four shots on target, passing 315 times compared to Real's 125. But Real was the team to score first from the only shot thanks to Vinicius. The second half scenario played out the opposite, with Real having 57% of possession, finishing 12 times with three shots on target - compared to 4 and 2 for the opponent. But Man City found an equalizer, also with a beautiful cannon shot from outside the penalty area of ​​Kevin de Bruyne.

With a score of 1-1, Man City and Real were forced to create a win-lose result to decide the rematch, or to settle on a penalty shoot-out.

Man City is in extremely high form when unbeaten in the last 22 matches in all competitions, including 18 wins and four draws, since the 0-1 loss to Tottenham in the English Premier League on February 5. In the Champions League alone, the army under Pep Guardiola is unbeaten in 11 matches since losing to Real 1-3 in the same period last season.

In the Premier League, Man City won all of the last 11 matches to fill the eight-point gap and take the top spot of Arsenal. The "Gunners" lost 0-3 to Brighton last weekend, helping the Manchester club to face the opportunity to win the title if they beat Chelsea at Etihad on May 21. With the Premier League race almost over, Man City can focus all of their focus on today's big battle.

On the other side of the battle line, Real struggled when winning only four of the last seven matches in all competitions. In particular, Carlo Ancelotti's teachers and students lost to two weakly rated opponents, Girona 2-4 and Sociedad 0-2. Last weekend, they won Getafe 1-0 but became the former king of La Liga, when Barca beat Espanyol 4-2 in a late match.

The confrontation at Etihad today will be one of the most important matches in Man City history. With the race to win the Premier League almost over and have won tickets to the final of the FA Cup against Man Utd - where Man City is more appreciated, Real is the most difficult challenge with the ambition of teachers and students to treble. Guardiola. Inter Milan is not an easy opponent to play, but Man City is definitely much more appreciated, if in the final.

But this is the Champions League, where Real always shows bravery, experience and old age, enough to overcome the most desperate moments.

Guardiola must not have forgotten the scenario in the semi-final second leg of the Champions League last season, when Man City led 5-3 to the last minute and was very close to the ticket to the final. However, Rodrygo's double in the 90th and 90th minutes and Karim Benzema's penalty in extra time made them hate.

This is the second time Man City has been eliminated from the Champions League semi-finals. And coincidentally, the first time they suffered that pain also happened in front of Real itself, in the 2015-2016 season. If it is not possible to get revenge today, Man City will become the first club to be eliminated in the semi-finals of the Champions League two consecutive seasons by the same opponent.

But compared to the tragedy in Madrid last year, today's encounter has an important difference. Man City is kicking the second leg at Etihad - where they are unbeaten in the last 25 Champions League matches, with 23 wins and two draws. Only two teams have a longer unbeaten streak at home in the history of the tournament, Barca with 38 matches between 2013-2020 and Bayern from 1998-2002.

In contrast, Real drew two, lost two of the last four away matches against Man City in the Champions League. The only opponent that Real have to make more guests in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League without ever winning is Milan, with two draws and five losses in seven matches.

Supercomputer Opta appreciated Man City's home form and judged that the British representative had a 59.1% chance of solving the match in 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Real have a 19.7% chance of knocking Etihad and a draw to bring the match into extra time at 21.2%. Even when the great battle at Etihad today enters extra time, Opta still rates Man City higher with a 69% chance of reaching the Champions League final, compared to 16.6% of the defending champion.

"Man City is often a supporting character, but never a main character in the Champions League. So is 2022-2023 their season?", the statistics site The Analyst commented. Opta shared the same opinion when assessing the army under Guardiola as the strongest candidate with 44.6% raising the title at Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul on June 10. Not Real, followed by Inter Milan with 36.8%.