Man City has a 58% chance of winning the Premier League
Up to the 30th round, when Arsenal were eight points ahead of Man City and played more than one match, the two teams' chances of winning the title were 51% and 49% respectively.
But because Arsenal drew Liverpool 2-2 in the last match of the round, while Man City won the host Southampton 4-1, the probability of winning the title of Man City increased to 58%, and the chance of "Gunners" decreased to 42. %.
Man City can win the championship if they win the remaining nine matches, including the great battle with Arsenal in round 33 on April 26. But Mikel Arteta's teachers and students still have the right to decide if they draw Man City and win the remaining matches. Arsenal are six points ahead of Man City and also play one more game, and the goal difference of Pep Guardiola's teachers and students is better.
The race to the top 4 also changed after round 30. A 2-1 victory over Brentford helped Newcastle increase their chances of qualifying for the Champions League next season to 85%, compared with 77% before the round. Man Utd's chances also increased from 73% to 79% after beating Everton 2-0 at Old Trafford. These two teams are sharing 56 points, playing one game short and three points more than Tottenham.
Tottenham also won the away team Brighton 2-1 in round 30, increasing the possibility of entering the top 4 from 15% to 18%. In contrast, the loss reduced Brighton's chances from 22% to 10%. Arsenal's draw also did not bring Liverpool an advantage when the possibility of them finishing in the top 4 decreased from 11% to 7%.
In the race at the bottom of the table, the risk of relegation is greater with Southampton and Nottingham because of defeats in the 30th round against Man City and Aston Villa. The relegation probability of these two teams is 80% and 76% respectively. Leicester and Everton are also at risk of being dropped from the Premier League, with a probability of 49% and 41% respectively. It is also not excluded that Leeds and Bournemouth are relegated when their probability is 20% and 18% respectively. Wolves and West Ham are temporarily safe with a risk of relegation below 10%.
Round 31 did not have a decisive match in the first group, although Aston Villa - Newcastle and Chelsea - Brighton are all competing for the European Cup. Strong teams such as Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool and Tottenham all face rivals in the relegation race, including West Ham, Leicester, Nottingham, Leeds and Bournemouth.
FiveThirtyEight is a famous statistics site about the US Presidential election, or football tournaments. They have their own ranking table to evaluate the clubs, then run the simulation thousands of times to calculate the probability of winning.
