Man City is three times more likely to win the title than Arsenal
Man City and Arsenal both have the right to self-determine the championship, before the two teams meet in the 33rd round of the Premier League. Only victory at Etihad will help Arsenal retain the right to self-determination. So their chance of winning is being assessed by FiveThirtyEight as only 24%. Meanwhile, Man City has a 76% chance of winning the championship.
In this season's Premier League "final" match, Man City is predicted to have a 58% chance of winning, 21% drawing and 21% losing. If they win, Pep Guardiola's teachers and students will shorten the gap with Arsenal to two points, with two matches yet to be played. And if they lose, Man City will be eight points behind, and even if they win two matches, they will not be able to catch up with Arsenal.
Opta's supercomputer also predicts the team's ability to win the championship based on the results of each big battle at Etihad. If they win, Man City will have a 91% chance of winning the championship, this rate if a draw is also 72%. But if they lose, Man City only has a 44% chance of being crowned, compared to Arsenal's 56% rate.
FiveThirtyEight is a statistical website known for predicting the results of US elections, which evaluates teams based on its own SPI index. Opta is a leading football statistics company in the world today.
The last time Arsenal won at Etihad Stadium was on January 18, 2015 in the English Premier League, when Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud respectively scored to help the visitors win 2-0. And the last time Arsenal drew at Man City's field was also in the English Premier League on May 8, 2016, with a score of 2-2. Giroud and Alexis Sanchez scored for the visitors, while Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne scored for the home team.
In the past seven games, Arsenal have lost, scored two goals, and conceded 16 goals. The last time the two teams met here was on January 27, 2023, in the fourth round of the FA Cup, when defender Nathan Ake scored the only goal that helped Manchester City win 1-0. The last game took place on February 15, 2023 in the English Premier League, where Manchester City won 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium, thanks to goals from De Brune, Jack Graylish, and Ellin Haran.
