Man Utd is predicted to have a 0.09% chance of winning the Premier League
Before the 2023-2024 season, Opta's AI computer declared that Man Utd had a 63.2% chance of entering the top 4. However, after only four matches, the re-evaluation results showed that the "Red Devils"'s chance was only reduced. 28.42%, a decrease of nearly 35%. The chance of winning the championship of the red half of Manchester decreased from 1.7% to 0.09%.
Man Utd is starting to struggle. They beat Wolves 1-0 and Nottingham Forest 3-2 at home at Old Trafford, but failed as guests of Tottenham (0-2) and Arsenal (1-3). Erik ten Hag and his team are currently ranked 11th out of 20 Premier League teams.
Off the field, the "Red Devils" also have to deal with the personal problems of Mason Greenwood, Jadon Sancho and Antony. After escaping accusations of rape and assault on his girlfriend, in the face of opposition from feminist groups, Greenwood had to transfer to Getafe on a loan contract. Sancho also has almost no future at Old Trafford, after publicly contradicting coach Ten Hag over his training attitude, while Antony had to temporarily stop playing due to accusations of assaulting his ex-girlfriend.
Contrary to Man Utd, Tottenham's chances of entering the top 4 are forecast to increase. Before the season, they only had a 9.5% chance, but now it has increased to 31.86% after winning 10 points from the first four matches. Tottenham fans may be happier to know that the computer's prediction about rival Arsenal has decreased slightly. Before the season, the computer thought Arsenal would finish second. However, after the first four rounds, the re-evaluation results showed that Liverpool would take this position, while Arsenal ranked third.
The computer also gave negative forecasts about Newcastle and Chelsea. After three defeats and only one win, the "Magpies"'s chance of entering the top 4 decreased from 24.8% to 16.69%. Similarly, after two defeats, a draw and a win, Chelsea's chance of entering the Top 4 decreased from 16% to 1.1%. They are even predicted to have a 0.9% chance of relegation.
On the contrary, Liverpool's chance of entering the top 4 increased from 76.8% to 91.1%, while West Ham's increased from 2% to 14.8%. After the first four rounds, both teams had three wins and one draw. They are ranked in the Top 4 with Man City and Tottenham.
Meanwhile, after three defeats and one draw, the penultimate team Everton has a 52.34% risk of relegation. Only Luton Town and Sheffield United, two newly promoted teams this season, are at greater risk of relegation. Sheffield United also lost three and drew one match like Everton, while Luton Town lost all three of their first matches and had one match postponed.
