The computer predicts that Man Utd has a 0.09% chance of winning the Premier League
Before the 2023-2024 season started, Opta's AI computer declared that Man Utd had a 63.2% chance of entering the Top 4 of the Premier League. However, after only four matches, the re-evaluation results showed that the "Red Devils" only had 28.42% chance, a decrease of nearly 35%. Before the season, Man Utd also had a 1.7% chance of winning the championship. But according to current data, they are only 0.09%.
Man Utd is going through a series of difficult starts. Two wins against Wolves 1-0 and Nottingham Forest 3-2 at Old Trafford were interspersed with two defeats 0-2 at Tottenham's field and 1-3 at Arsenal's field. Man Utd is currently ranked 11th out of 20 Premier League teams.
In addition to problems on the field, the "Red Devils" also have to deal with the personal problems of Mason Greenwood, Jadon Sancho and Antony. After escaping accusations of rape and assault on his girlfriend, in the face of opposition from feminist groups, Greenwood had to move to Getafe on loan. Sancho also has almost no future at Old Trafford, after publicly contradicting coach Erik Ten Hag over his training attitude, and Antony had to stop playing due to accusations of assaulting his ex-girlfriend.
While Man Utd is assessed to have a sharply reduced chance of entering the Top 4, Tottenham is forecast to increase. Before the season, the computer claimed Tottenham only had a 9.5% chance. However, after the "Rooster" won 10 points from the first four matches, the prediction increased to 31.86%. Tottenham fans may be happier to know that the computer's prediction about rival Arsenal has decreased slightly. Before the season, the computer thought Arsenal would finish second. However, after the first four rounds, the re-evaluation results showed that Liverpool would finish second, and Arsenal would finish third.
The computer also gave negative forecasts about Newcastle and Chelsea. After three defeats and only one win, the "Magpies"'s chance of entering the Top 4 decreased from 24.8% to 16.69%. Similarly, after two defeats, a draw and a win, Chelsea's chance of entering the Top 4 decreased from 16% to 1.1%. The computer even predicted that Chelsea had a 0.9% chance of relegation.
On the contrary, Liverpool's chance of entering the Top 4 increased from 76.8% to 91.1%, while West Ham's increased from 2% to 14.8%. After the first four rounds, both teams had three wins and one draw. They are ranked in the Top 4 with Man City and Tottenham.
Meanwhile, after three defeats and one draw, the computer predicts that the penultimate team Everton has a 52.34% risk of relegation. Only Luton Town and Sheffield United, two newly promoted teams this season, are at greater risk of relegation. Sheffield United also lost three and drew one match like Everton, while Luton Town lost all three of their first matches and had one match postponed.
